As a lender I read various market reports. These reports break the real estate market into various segments and basically come down to units of homes sold over a given time period. These segments include “new” versus “existing” homes sold, basically the number of homes sold by home builders versus the number of homes sold by their current owner. Across the nation “new” versus “old” is broken down into regional data and then into state data.  

The aggregate national housing data can be broken into ever discrete data points. In addition to new and old units sold, it is possible to break out the number of single family homes sold versus the number of condos, or the number of rental units built versus the number of for sale homes built, this can go on and on. This data is always compared to past results. This month’s data is compared to last month’s data. This year’s data is compared to last year’s data.

What just struck me were a few recent reports that have looked at today’s housing performance and compared it to the number of homes sold during “the housing boom.” This period between 2003 and the middle of 2006 has been called “the go-go years” and “housing’s heyday” in addition to “the housing boom,” which begs the following question to be asked.

If we continue to breakdown the housing data into ever more discrete units until we finally get to the transaction level, would any of the consumers who bought their home during “the boom years” say the got a good deal on their homes?

“The Boom Years” is characterized by the aggregation of transactions. Most of those who handled multiple transactions did very well. At the top of the heap would be homebuilders, then Realtors and mortgage lenders. The experience of the individual buyer is not accurately reflected in a descriptive title for any given market.

This divergence between a descriptive title being applied to market conditions and the experience of the individual applies to today’s housing market. The housing market is generally described as depressed, moribund, or even as a crisis. These are apt descriptions if you happen to be a homebuilder, a supplier of building products, or a land broker. However; for consumers it is possible to say that today’s housing market represents a remarkable opportunity.

Home prices are starting to stabilized after falling as much as 50% over the last few years. If you combine these low home prices with interest rates that are very close to historic lows, the cost of home ownership is lower today than in any time in recent memory.

One of the causalities of “the boom years” was the concept of what our homes should be. Throughout much of this decade our homes became financial instruments that we manipulated for short term financial gain. If you are looking for a house to be a place that can be the long term anchor for a family, to be that old school idea of a home, then today represents a remarkable opportunity to get a good deal. Those who end up buying their home in the next two years will mostly likely look back at that purchase in several years and very happy with the results.

If you have any questions on this entry, or have any questions regarding mortgages, please feel free to contact me.

This article was contributed by: Bob Jones
Mission Hills Mortgage Bankers
(707) 292-0337
rtjones@mhmb.com

First Time Buyer Tax Credit!
Will you miss out on an $8,000 giveaway?

You have about 2.5 months to get in contract to buy a home. The Federal Government extended the $8,000 but you must be in contract by April 30th to be eligible. This is an amazing opportunity to buy a home and get money for doing it!

Can you imagine what you could do with the $8,000? You could set aside for emergencies, remodel the kitchen or bathrooms, take a vacation, etc. This is a great opportunity, but in order to get the $8,000, you need to get moving…literally!
Getting a Mortgage in 2010:

 10 Things to Know
More than three years into a painful housing crash, the real estate market has seen recent signs of stabilization. Home sales have increased, inventory levels are down, and price declines have become less precipitous. Along with more affordable home prices and a tax perk from Uncle Sam, attractive mortgage rates—which remained below 5 percent as of late November—have been a driving force behind this development. The availability of low mortgage rates will play a decisive role in the performance of the 2010 housing market as well. To help consumers better understand the requirements and costs they will face as they shop for a home loan next year, U.S. News spoke with a handful of housing market experts and compiled a list of 10 things to know about getting a mortgage in 2010.

1. Still tight: The steep run-up in home prices during the first half of the decade was fueled in large part by breezy lending standards. Some bankers handed out loans without down payments or documentation requirements. But when the housing bubble popped and those loans became massive losses, banks began raising lending standards for borrowers of all stripes. And with the labor market continuing to erode—the unemployment rate hit 10.2 percent in October—and mortgage delinquency rates setting new records, there is no reason to expect credit requirements to loosen in 2010. “Lending standards have tightened dramatically between 2007 and 2009,” says Scott Stern, CEO of Lenders One, a cooperative of independent mortgage bankers. “I think there will be a little more belt-tightening in 2010.”

2. Down payments: This tight credit environment affects consumers in several ways. First, down payment requirements will be higher than they were just a few years ago. Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration are at the low end of the spectrum and come with minimum down payments of 3.5 percent. (More on FHA loans below.) Down payments on loans outside of the FHA will vary depending on the market, the borrower, and the property type. “Generally, to get the best rate around, you need at least 20 percent for a down payment,” says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. “That doesn’t mean you can’t get a mortgage if you have less of a down payment. . . it just means that you are not going to get the best interest rates.” Could lenders ease up on down payment requirements in 2010? Possibly. If lenders become convinced that home prices are improving, they may allow borrowers to put slightly less down. But don’t expect that to occur until the end of the year—if at all.

3. Credit scores: Cecala says that borrowers will need a FICO score of at least 730 to get the best mortgage rates. They also will need to fully document their income and assets. To ensure that your credit score is as strong as possible, borrowers should access their credit reports. The Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act entitles consumers to one free credit report from all three major credit reporting bureaus—TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian—each year. (The free reports can be obtained at annualcreditreport.com.) Consumers should examine each report to make sure it doesn’t include any errors. “[Consumers] ought to know what their credit score is; they ought to know what’s on their credit report; they ought to make sure that what’s on their credit report is in fact theirs,” says Rick Allen, director of strategic initiatives for Mortgage Marvel, an online mortgage shopping website. “That’s a must do for everybody.”

4. FHA: Borrowers who can’t meet these tighter lending requirements can turn to the FHA, a federal agency that insures mortgage loans against default. Standards for FHA loans are typically less onerous than those for private lenders. The average credit score for FHA borrowers is about 690, and the minimum down payment is 3.5 percent, Cecala says. “If you can’t make the 730 [credit score] or you can’t make the 20 percent down [payment], the next best thing is FHA,” Cecala says. The downside is that FHA loans come with additional costs. Borrowers must pay an insurance premium as well as a slightly higher interest rate, Cecala says.

5. FHA increase? With so many borrowers unable to meet today’s stricter lending requirements, FHA-backed loans have become increasingly popular. Today, the FHA guarantees nearly 3 of every 10 new home mortgages. That’s a stunning increase from 2006, when the agency backed roughly 3 percent of new home loans. Meanwhile, the agency’s finances have deteriorated considerably. The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for FHA loans increased from about 13 percent in the third quarter of last year to 14.36 percent in this year’s third quarter. At the same time, the agency’s capital reserve ratio dipped below the level that Congress mandates. In the face of mounting political pressure, the Obama administration has announced new steps that may make it more difficult for some borrowers to obtain mortgages backed by the agency. The steps include raising the minimum FICO score, increasing up-front cash requirements, and possibly charging higher insurance premiums. “We want to ensure that we are able to continue to support the housing market in the short term and provide access to homeownership over the long-term, while minimizing the risk to the American taxpayer,” Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan told a congressional committee in written testimony.

6. Asset purchase program: Mortgage rates in 2010 are expected to climb from 2009’s extremely low levels. After the Federal Reserve announced plans to purchase debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year, rates on 30-year fixed conforming mortgages fell to historic lows, plunging to 4.97 percent in late November from 6.19 a year earlier. But the Fed’s asset purchase program is scheduled to expire at the end of the first quarter of 2010, and a lack of private demand for mortgage-backed securities could lead to higher rates. Keep in mind that the Fed has already extended this program once. And if it appears that the market needs additional government support to keep rates low, the Fed could always decide to remain in the market. Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com expects rates to increase from current levels to between 5 and 5.25 percent by the end of March 2010.

7. Jumbo mortgages: Rates on more expensive home loans—or jumbo mortgages—have dropped to extremely attractive levels, hitting 5.88 percent in the week that ended November 27. “That ranks with all-time bests,” Gumbinger says. But while he expects rates on jumbo mortgages to remain historically attractive throughout 2010, many borrowers won’t be able to obtain them. That’s because most banks have to keep jumbo mortgages on their books and therefore apply much stricter lending standards to them. (Smaller conforming loans can be sold off to Fannie and Freddie.) “Your down payment requirements [for jumbo mortgages] are anywhere between 40 percent down to 20 percent down, depending upon what is happening in your marketplace,” Gumbinger says. “You may have to show superhuman strength in terms of credit, [and] you may have to show extraordinary income size.”

8. Fed rate hike: In attempting to jump-start the economy, the Fed has slashed its benchmark federal funds rate to as low as zero percent. And even as some express concerns about future inflation, the central bank in early November said that economic conditions were “likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” As such, economists don’t expect the Fed to raise rates anytime soon. “The statement does not lead us to change our view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged until the September 2010 meeting, when we expect the first rate hike,” Dean Maki of Barclays Capital Research said in a report. But while an increased federal funds rate could push rates on certain products—such as adjustable rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit—higher, it has little direct influence on fixed mortgage rates.

9. Recovery: A recovery in the U.S. economy may also lead to increased mortgage costs. That’s because economic improvement could create more demand for credit, which pushes rates higher. At the same time, a recovery could embolden investors to move money out of ultra safe assets like 10-year treasuries and into more risky investments. And since 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, such a development would put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Gumbinger says that economic improvement and other factors could push rates on 30-year fixed mortgages as high as 5.75 percent by midsummer. “After that, you are going to be at the whims of the economy,” he says.

10. Fannie and Freddie’s future: A wild card in the outlook for mortgage rates is the administration’s plans for Fannie and Freddie. The two mortgage finance giants—which buy home loans from banks—are a key source of liquidity for the market. The government-chartered companies have long been controversial, and speculation about their future has been mounting since their shaky finances forced Uncle Sam to take over last year. The administration’s plans for their future—which could include liquidation or converting them to public utilities—could become clearer in early 2010. This decision could have profound implications for mortgage rates, Gumbinger says. “We could have some dislocations in the supply chains with mortgages depending upon how immediate or how gradual the changes to the structures of those companies are,” he says.

Mortgage Rate Update…
Rates moved up and then down and remain unchanged from last week!  Rates moved around as they always do, and were again motivated by disappointing economic information!

Bottom line…rates are great!!! But for how long?

Rates for the week ending 2/12/2010

FHA Loan with a minimum of 3.5% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 620 or better who would be locking for 30 days.
30 Year Fixed Rate 5%   w/5.26 APR

Conventional Loan with a minimum of 10% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 740 or better who is locking for 30 days.
30 Year Fixed Rate 4.875%   w/5.21% APR

Call team “WineCountryMoves.com” today!

Happy buying!

This article was contributed by Dave Raffi, 707-303-2933,  Regional Manager- Mission Hills Mortgage

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Opportunity with an expiration date!

Historically low home prices!
The Real Estate industry is trying to get the word out to anyone who will listen that this is a great time to buy a home. Yes, that is how they get paid. But there is more here than self interest. The fact is we have never seen such tangible benefits to buying Real Estate as are visible to anyone with eyes wide open.

Home prices are rolled back to levels that make them affordable to many people who just a few years ago were unable to buy. Some say home prices are rolled back to 1980’s prices. Some try to express it by explaining that homes have fallen by an average of 50% in Sonoma County since the highs of just a few years ago.

However you express it, home prices are at a bottom. All you have to do is talk to the Real Estate Appraisers. They will tell you that they are seeing appreciation, however so slight, in many areas. Do you like to buy things when they are at their lowest? Most of us do. Then your time is now.

First Time Buyer Tax Credit!
The Federal Government extended the $8,000 First Time buyer tax credit until March of 2010. In order to be eligible for the $8,000, a home buyer must be in contract by April 30th. This is an amazing opportunity to buy a home and get money for doing it!

Can you imagine what you could do with the $8,000? You could set aside for emergencies, remodel the kitchen or bathrooms, take a vacation, etc. This is a great opportunity, but in order to get the $8,000, you need to get moving…literally!

Low rates!
Rates are going to go up. As many people know, the Federal Government has been keeping rates low in order to stimulate and stabilize the Real Estate market. The prediction is that this will come to an end in March of 2010.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Jay Brinkmann has been talking about this for some time now. He recently was quoted as saying his biggest concern going forward is what happens to the mortgage market when the Fed stops buying Fannie loans. Apparently, at last report, the Fed was buying 100 percent of their loans. Where are the other investors? Either they still don’t want mortgages or the Fed is pricing them out of the market.

What does this mean to you?
Brinkmann said, “We don’t know if rates will go up 20 basis points or 40 or far more,” says Brinkmann. A jump like that translates to rates as high as 1% over present rates. How would you feel if you ended up with a much higher payment if rates jump?

The point?
The point is all of these reasons are opportunities for you if you are thinking about buying that home anytime in the near future. But hear this…this is an opportunity with an expiration date.
Mortgage Rate Update…
Rates moving up! Rates moved higher this week on better than expected financial news!

Rates for the week ending 1/29/2010

• FHA loan with a minimum of 3.5% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 620 or better who would be locking for 30 days. 30 Year Fixed Rate 5.125%   w/5.34 APR
• Conventional Loan with a minimum of 10% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 740 or better who is locking for 30 days. 30 Year Fixed Rate 5%   w/5.29% APR

Call team “WineCountryMoves.com” today!

Happy buying!

This article was contributed by Dave Raffi, Regional Manager of Mission Hills Mortgage,  707-303-2933.

Is this a sign that the FHA is now being PROactive instead of REactive? This is not just a sign that the FHA is being proactive, it is definitive proof!

 The Federal Housing Administration announced that in some instances, the FHA will assist troubled borrowers BEFORE they become delinquent or miss payments. All that would need to be proved is that any mortgage payment problems were related to a reduction in income from:

• Job Loss
• Fewer Paid Hours
• Slashed Wages
• Decline In Self Employed Business Earnings.

 FHA Commissioner David Sterns gave a little more insight into the situation with the following statement: “The FHA has always required lenders to establish early contact with delinquent borrowers to discuss the reason for missing a payment and to evaluate reinstatement options. Now servicers will have additional options for those borrowers who seek help before they go delinquent, which increases the likelihood that the borrower will be able to retain their home.”

 You can see from the above quote that the overriding goal for the FHA is to keep borrowers in their home, no matter their circumstances. The FHA has been helping delinquent borrowers modify their loans, now they are planning to help those who will likely become delinquent.

 So what are the remedies that may be available to those who qualify? There are currently only two options that were listed…but these are two very good options.

• Forbearance – Lenders agree to postpone or reduce payments for a specified period of time. Please note that forbearance does not forgive payments, the payments are simply added to the balance of the loan.
• Permanent Payment Reductions – The permanent payment reductions are utilized in more severe cases. This may be done by increasing the length of the loan, reducing the interest rates, forgiving principal owed, or any combination of the three.

 As we stated before, it is clear that the Federal Housing Administration ultimately wants to keep borrowers in their homes, and is giving good options to do just that. The new programs are helping to reduce the chance of future problems.

 Helping people stay in their homes helps keep families intact, and also helps keep Real Estate values higher than they would be otherwise.

 If you have any questions regarding FHA Loans, or anything related to Sonoma County Real Estate, please do not hesitate to contact us

Rates moved higher this week! Don’t assume they will stay low for ever. Frankly they are going to go up dramatically at some point. The day they go up, some “expert” will put out an article that says they are going down. Why? No one knows when mortgage rates will go up and stay there, especially the experts.

   If ever there was a time to make your move it is right now.

Rates for the week ending 1/15/10:

FHA loan with a minimum of 3.5% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 620 or better who would be locking for 30 days. 30 Year Fixed Rate 5%   w/5.24 APR

Conventional Loan with a minimum of 10% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 740 or better who is locking for 30 days. 30 Year Fixed Rate 4.875%   w/5.19% APR

Call the WineCountryMoves.com Team today and get started on your Sonoma County Real Estate Home Purchase!
 
Yasmeen Hillyard
707-771-0338
_______________________________________________________
Countdown for $8,000!

96 Days until the deadline…Don’t miss out! The Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 has extended the tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence.

The tax credit now applies to sales occurring on or after January 1, 2009 and on or before April 30, 2010. However, in cases where a binding sales contract is signed by April 30, 2010, a home purchase completed by June 30, 2010 will qualify.

Are you really going to miss out on this great opportunity?

Don’t disqualify yourself! I can show you how to buy a home with little money down, ok credit and stay within your budget!

Call me today and find out how!

No charge for pre-approvals!

This article was contributed by Dave Raffi Regional Manager: Mission Hills Mortgage: 707-303-2933

I have done a lot of reading and research, both good and bad. There are a lot of bulls who expect great things from 2010, and there are also a lot of bears who are predicting some not so good news for 2010. I wanted to share some of the factors that will shape our year.

Sonoma County Real Estate 2010

$8,000 Tax Credit giveaway will go away!!

If you are one of the many first time buyers who didn’t take advantage of the First Time Buyer Tax Credit last year, then you are in luck. Congress has finally extended the first time home buyer tax credit into 2010. President Obama is signed the bill into law on November 6, 2009.

The first time home buyer tax credit extension allows a buyer to enter an agreement with a seller by April 30, 2010 and close on the house by June 30, 2010.

First time home buyers are defined as anyone who has not owned a home for the past 3 years. First time home buyers will get an $8,000 tax credit, similar to the tax credit for much of 2009.

But that’s not all you get….

Repeat Buyers get a huge tax credit too!

Buyers who have owned their current home for at least five years, are eligible for a $6,500 tax credit. The buyer must enter an purchase agreement with a seller by April 30, 2010 and close on the house by June 30, 2010.

Income limitations have been increased to $125,000 for single filers and $225,000 for joint filers. The purchase price of the home must be less than $800,000.

“The substantial rise in home sales we’ve seen over the past few months proves that the tax credit is working and is being used by buyers who were waiting for the right opportunity to get into the market,” said NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate in Dallas-Fort Worth.

This important incentive is helping to stabilize the housing market, stimulate the economy and create new jobs in communities all across our great nation. Extending and expanding the home buyer tax credit will enable even more families to take advantage of current low interest rates and affordable prices to invest in their future through homeownership.

Will this affect you? Are you a home buyer or seller? Were you wanting to use the 2009 tax credit, but unable to complete a purchase prior to the old deadline?

Considering buying a home before the tax credits expire!

Visit your local credit union for your mortgage loan and estimate your monthly mortgage payments, with our calculators below, before home shopping!

Don’t miss out on this $8,000 or $6,500 tax credit. The deadline might seem far off, but an escrow can take months and if you wait you could miss out.

Call Yasmeen Hillyard today!!
____________________________________________________________

The Mortgage Rates?

Rates move up…slightly
We saw a slight increase in rates this week. Rates continue to stay pretty low, but the rally in the stock market had an effect on rates as cash flowed from the treasury markets to the stock market.

Remember, rates go up much faster than they come down. Rates go up like a ramp and down like a stairway. Don’t get lulled into thinking they will be down forever.

 Rates for the week ending 1/8/10

This quote below is based on a FHA loan with a minimum of 3.5% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 620 or better who would be locking for 30 days.

30 Year Fixed Rate 5.25%   w/5.395% APR

The quote below is based on a Conventional Loan with a minimum of 10% down, for a person buying a personal residence with a FICO score of 740 or better who is locking for 30 days.

30 Year Fixed Rate 5.5%   w/5.64% APR

Happy buying!

 This article was contributed by: Dave Raffi  707-303-2933
Regional Manager
Mission Hills Mortgage

Currently, only 4% of troubled homeowners have actually received some sort of permanent loan modification. 4%…wow…what an underwhelming, anticlimactic number. The actual number of people who have received long term loan modifications reported was 31,382, and a nearly equal number, 30,650 were denied long term loan modifications.

Why have so many people been denied long term loan modifications? The answers given were 3 fold:

·         Not making payments on time

·         Bit submitting the necessary paperwork (more on this in a minute)

·         Not qualifying for various reasons (lack of sufficient income was the most common reason given)

So with a nearly 50% rejection rate let’s take an extremely high level look at the process.

1.       The  homeowner realizes they are in trouble due to some financial hardship.

2.       Paperwork is submitted to the lender documenting this hardship, and a complete disclosure of all finances is given.

3.       The lender then decides if they will grant a temporary loan modification to the borrower.

4.       If the borrower is able to make 3  consecutive payments that meet the new terms of the loan modification, the loan is supposed to be permanently modified to those terms.

Seems pretty easy huh? Again, the process was described in an extremely high level fashion for simplicity, some details may have been deleted. In practice, many are finding it is not so easy. Banks are blaming the borrowers for incomplete packages, and the borrowers are blaming the banks for losing paperwork is dragging their feet in the decision making process. Many borrowers state that they fax, refax, and even rerefax (is that a word?) to the lenders, and the lenders claim they never receive the paperwork.

Is there any good news? Of course there is. The number of troubled borrowers in trial modifications stood at 697,026 at the end of November 2009. This number is up from 650,994 at the end of October. The growth (7.1% month over month growth to be exact) shows that lenders may be fixing the process, or more willing to modify loans. In either case, we see this as positive news for loan modifications.

Congress has told servicers to have more transparent conversion numbers as well, with updates of how many have applied for loan modifications, how many received loan modifications, how many were denied loan modifications, and what the reasons were for denial were. Congress has said it will dispatch a “SWAT Team” to the top 7 mortgage servicers, and this SWAT Team will break up any process logjams that will allow for more help to be given. This is also good news…too bad it took congressional oversight to show the process is not working.

If you have story about your loan modification, whether it is happy story, or a horror story, we would love to hear about it. If you have any tips for people going through the process, please pass those along as well. After all, as soon as we fix the mortgage crisis, Sonoma County, California, and the rest of the country will be better off.

If you have any questions regarding loan modifications, Sonoma County, or Sonoma County Real Estate, please do not hesitate to contact us. We look forward to hearing from you.

This article was contributed by Chris Ingram.

Custom Built Home In Petaluma California

New home construction rebounded in November 2009, from a 6 month low that was recorded in October 2009. The actual numbers came in at an annualized rate of 574,000 units, as compared to Octobers’ woeful 527,000 units. We see any increase as good news, and the November increase was listed as an 8.9% improvement in monthly annualized numbers, a large increase.

 The improvement in new home construction starts was regionalized however. The Northeastern U.S. saw a remarkable 16.4% rise, the Southern U.S. saw a 12.3% rise, the Midwestern U.S. saw a 3.0% rise, and we recorded a 1.9% increase here in the western U.S. Again, we will take any improvement, and are happy to see positive numbers.

We, as a nation, are still behind last years numbers. November 2008 recorded 655,000 new construction starts…we are 12.4% short of that number. Again, I will reiterate, we are happy with any signs of improvement, especially an 8.9% monthly increase in what is traditionally a slow time of the year for construction.

 Is it too soon to start new construction? In many parts of the country you can still purchase a home for less than it costs to build a comparable home; Sonoma County is no exception to this trend. Many of these new home starts are for people who want a specific property that is not on the market, retirees and “moveups” who are looking for their dream home, and even those who cannot seem to find the perfect home listed for sale. We have written about a shortfall of homes on the market in some price ranges, and the new construction may be an outcome of that situation.

 Another reason for the new construction numbers was the extension of the $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers. Many builders noted that this alone was the reason for many buyers to enter into a contract to build a home, and we are excited that the government had the foresight to extend this important stimulus plan.

 It is fair to note that this new home construction “recovery” is a month to month numbers comparison, and the new home construction numbers are trailing off towards the end of the year, which is typical in the new home construction industry. What happens in 2010 remains to be seen. We will surely post an article with our 2010 Real Estate predictions before the end of the year.

If you have any questions regarding new home construction, or Sonoma County Real Estate in general, please do not hesitate to contact us. We look forward to hearing from you and answering your questions.

This article was contributed by Chris Ingram.